Top Shot Full Team Collection Analysis

The “Full Team Completion” bonus is Top Shot’s premier collector challenge.

As described by the Top Shot team:

Just getting started with the Full Team bonus will require some serious initial investment. For all but a handful of teams, the cost of a Full Team set is already well over $1,000.

But things really get tough for collectors trying to maintain their complete set. Bottlenecks will be major predators, and close attention will have to be paid to the team and the Top Shot ecosystem.

A few thoughts and notes on the Full Team Bonus:

Utility: It's easy to imagine a future where Full Team set owners would have special irl access to their favorite team. Tickets? In arena special access? Airdrops? Profit-sharing? (ok, maybe not, but someone let me pitch Adam Sliver, please?) No utility has actually been announced yet and it’s probably dangerous to speculate on what individual teams will do. But it would be bullish to see teams making contact with their set completion fans.

Collector Score: The only announced benefit of the Full Team set is a major collector score bonus. Collector score is clearly emerging as the key in-game currency.

Bottlenecks: The Full Team Bonus creates moment bottlenecks. The announcement itself calls out the most obvious: the Run-it-Back set. But if Full Team sets really take off, moments from the base set could also run up against bottlenecks. I bought Vince Carter (Hawks) /3336 and JaVale McGee (Lakers) /3339 on this premise. I’m searching for a good series 2 moment to buy next. But trying to predict bottlenecks can be risky, do your own research.

The key element of the Full Team set is that it focuses on the individual teams. Here is a breakdown of team completions and the current low ask for each Full Team set:

The Hornets and Timberwolves are blowing every other team out of the water on completion. But they also have the lowest floors.

The Lakers and Knicks both seem to have more completions than would be predicted by floor cost. But that can probably be attributed to their large and well-off fan bases. The Warriors might be in that category as well.

The Pacers are seemingly underperforming, but it’s very early. I have my eye on the Spurs. They have a great fan base and their completion cost should fall fast once Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli common moments are available in a future series. But those could take a while.

Who will be the next team over 1,000 completions? Which team has the most completions in 10 years? Wen Run it Back Series 3!!!!

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